Circus Mystery

How to play Circus Mystery

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

What is Circus Mystery?

About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.

And this is with various forms of lockdowns persisting in Europe and the U.S., which should mute industrial demand for commodities. Paper currencies are dying. That’s what’s happening, pure and simple. And they are about to get their death blow.

What death blow exactly? Short term nominal U.S. dollar interest rates will be negative within precisely 4 weeks.This is because Janet Yellen, now Secretary of the Debt, has now begun the process of dumping $929 billion directly into the U.S. banking system by the end of March. This is in addition to the $1.9 trillion “stimulus” bill and $1,400 checks to every American about to get through in a matter of weeks.

What is Circus Mystery?

The news comes as prediction market operators continue to form alliances with major media outlets. These deals allow news outlets to embed event contract data into their reporting and offer prediction platforms more visibility to investors and news audiences. 

Polymarket has developed its media presence elsewhere. In January, it signed a deal with Dow Jones to provide its prediction market data to several of the publisher’s consumer platforms. The deal covers publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily.

Prediction markets have become more and more intertwined with sports and entertainment businesses. Polymarket has agreements with Major League Baseball and Sportsradar. Sportsradar provides data and services for more than 20 sports leagues and competitions.