Forgotten

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The volume is not only seen across NFL markets, but also on those in college football, which is practically a religion in Texas. When Ohio State faced Texas in a Top 5 matchup on 12 September, volume surpassed 50.7 million contracts traded, according to Odds Shopper, a prediction market tracking site. The robust activity set the stage for an intense legislative hearing three days later in the Texas Senate.

The 62-minute hearing featuring Kalshi and a prominent lobbyist from the American Gaming Association provided a blueprint for the state’s evaluation of prediction markets next year. Before the calendar turns to 2027, though, stakeholders will monitor races for governor, attorney general and the US Senate on election night. The results in all three Texas races will likely have a major impact on the future of prediction markets inside the state.

Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.

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“Publicly traded valuations are a reflection of the current interest rate environment,” Chad Beynon, lead gaming analyst for Macquarie, told iGB. “Whether it’s a long-term financial model on a growth company, you’re going to discount that back at a higher rate, or if it’s just a standard four-wall business, the cash flows in a higher interest rate environment are worth less.”

According to data from Yahoo Finance, the resort and casino sector is -41% over the last five years, and the overall gambling sector, which includes major sportsbooks and online operators, is +7%; the benchmark S&P 500 index, by comparison, is +71% during that span.

Two blockbuster developments in the casino space earlier this year seemed to indicate an increasingly bullish bet on the sector, including Fertitta Entertainment’s acquisition of Caesars Entertainment in May. The other is a subsequent takeover offer of MGM Resorts from its largest shareholder, Barry Diller’s People Inc. But a negative shift in market conditions could affect both deals.

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“At the end of the day, this is not about revenue. This is about channelization,” Nally added. “How much of that black market can we channelize into the legal, regulated market?”

According to Nally, approximately 70% of online gambling in Alberta occurred through unregulated operators prior to the July 13 launch, with the remaining 30% flowing through Play Alberta, the province’s sole legal platform at the time.

As of Sept. 17, 31 licensed iGaming operators are officially live and accepting wagers across the province.